Canada’s Housing Markets Split by Region as Fall Buying Season Hits Headwinds

bxaqm
October 09, 2026
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A newly published analysis from RBC Economics highlights a fragmented real estate landscape across Canada, with shifting economic pressures, renewed trade disputes with the U.S., and climbing long-term interest rates putting prospective buyers on the defensive.

Key National Trends
Broad Resale Slowdowns: September saw home transactions decline across most major regional boards—including Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Hamilton, and Kitchener-Waterloo.

Diverging Local Drivers: According to RBC assistant chief economist Robert Hogue, localized differences in buyer confidence, regional affordability, demographics, and inventory levels are causing distinct trajectories from coast to coast.

Future Outlook: National recovery is expected to resume gradually as affordability improves and pent-up demand is eventually unleashed, though the path ahead remains uneven.

Major Regional Breakdowns

Toronto: A brief five-month recovery that extended through August has officially stalled. September figures showed month-over-month benchmark prices dipping 0.5% and resales dropping 5.2%, weighed down by trade jitters and financing costs.

Vancouver: The market remains firmly entrenched in a correction phase. With active listings hovering near a decade-long high and persistent affordability barriers keeping buyers sidelined, further price cuts may be required to clear excess inventory.

Montreal: Surging supply has begun to slow price growth. Inventory has jumped 20% compared to the previous year, driven by the largest wave of new sellers in six years.

Calgary: Bucking the broader downward trend, Alberta’s primary market has stayed remarkably resilient. Demand and supply remain well-balanced, keeping prices stable near 2025 baselines. However, a deep divide exists by property type: single-detached homes remain robust, whereas condo apartments have experienced steeper corrections in both sales and pricing